Ask Billboard: Is Taylor Swift's '1989' the Next 'Teenage Dream'?

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IS '1989' THE NEW 'TEENAGE DREAM'?

Dear Gary,

As Taylor Swift just scored her third Billboard Hot 100 No. 1, "Bad Blood," from her 11-week Billboard 200-topper 1989, it's got me wondering about the set's place historically. Specifically, could the album become the next Teenage Dream?

I guess it's clear what I mean, but if not I'll shortly explain: Katy Perry's 2010 album Teenage Dream famously produced five Hot 100 No. 1s, tying Michael Jackson's Bad for the most leaders from one album. To recap: Perry's "California Gurls" stayed on top for six weeks, followed by the title track (two), "Firework" (four), "E.T." (five) and "Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.)" (two). (The deluxe Teenage Dream: The Complete Confection contains another No. 1, "Part of Me," but since it's not on the original album, I know that it's not generally considered a sixth No. 1 from it.)

Back to Taylor: her "Shake It Off" spent four weeks at No. 1 and "Blank Space" led for seven, prior to "Blood." Could she lead (at least) two more times from 1989? Let's remember that it will likely take a long time until her next album will be released: she's always waited two years in between releases. Her first was in 2006 and since, she's offered new studio albums in 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014. So, maybe October/November 2016 will bring her next one. In other words, she probably still has a long span in which to release singles from 1989. In my opinion, great picks for No. 1s from it could be "All You Had to Do Was Stay," "Out of the Woods," "New Romantics" or "Wonderland."

My question is: do you believe that 1989 has enough to offer to become the next Teenage Dream? Or, could it even become bigger and generate a record six Hot 100 No. 1s?

By the way: Kind of ironic that Taylor could pass Katy, who "Bad Blood" is rumoured to be about.

Thanks,

Norman Große
Dresden, Saxony, Germany

Hi Norman,

Not only is "Bad Blood" widely considered to be about Perry, but it also has "Bad" in its title, so those could be two signs that Swift is on her way to joining Perry and Jackson in vaunted chart history.

With Swift notching her third No. 1 on the Hot 100 from 1989, she now needs just two more from the album to tie the record for most leaders from a single set. But, as bright as Swift's star power is, the fact that only two albums in the Hot 100's 56-year history have yielded five No. 1s each shows how difficult the feat is. Plus, beyond Teenage Dream and Bad, only seven sets have housed four No. 1s apiece: the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack (1977-78), Whitney Houston's Whitney (1987-88), George Michael's Faith (1987-88), Paula Abdul's Forever Your Girl (1989-90), Janet Jackson's Rhythm Nation 1814 (1989-91), Mariah Carey's self-titled debut album (1990-91) and Usher's Confessions (2004).

So, that's nine albums in the last five-and-a-half decades that have contained four or more Hot 100 No. 1s each, an incredibly exclusive club. It's just so tough for an album to earn the honor, no matter how high its quality or commerciality. Most notably, it's hard to maintain fan excitement about a set months after its arrival, after so many fans have heard, bought or streamed its songs. "Style" was the third single from 1989 and, while it became the third No. 1 on the Pop Songs airplay chart, it stopped at No. 6 on the Hot 100. Even "Blood" benefited from the buzz of its high-profile video premiere to kick off the Billboard Music Awards (May 17), along with the addition of Kendrick Lamar.

And, even a smash hit can stop shy of the Hot 100's top spot. While Rhythm Nation 1814 turned out four leaders, for instance, two more – the title track and "Come Back to Me" – peaked at No. 2, narrowly denying the set a record six No. 1s.

Of course, since her arrival in 2006, Swift has been essentially unstoppable in her career, so if anyone can tie – or break – such a record, Swift would seem to be the safest bet to do so. As to what songs could be future 1989 No. 1s? I'd pick these five as having the most potential: "New Romantics," "How You Get the Girl," "I Wish You Would," "Wildest Dreams" and "This Love."

Those are Norman's and my choices. What are yours? Sound off in the comments section below, email [email protected] or tweet @gthot20. "Bad Blood" has just begun its No. 1 run, so no next single from 1989 has yet been announced. But, in the meantime, it'll be fun to speculate if 1989 can tie or break history first set in 1988 (by Jackson) and 2011 (by Perry).