Official coronavirus R rate goes UP as parts of UK creep over one
BRITAIN'S R rate has gone up, officials say, as more data shows the southern parts of the country are seeing an uptick in cases.
The current R value - the number of people an infected person will pass Covid on to - is now estimated to be between 0.9 and 1.
The R rate had dropped for four weeks in a row prior to today's estimate, which comes after a move from the lockdown into the toughened tiered system.
Last week, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) estimated the R to be between a range 0.8 to 1.
The R rate must be kept below 1 to cause the outbreak to shrink. Above 1, and cases will continue to rise.
The coronavirus' natural R rate is around 3. But it can be squashed by cutting back on social contact.
London is now among three areas, all in Tier 2, where the R rate has slightly tipped over 1.
It comes amid increasing concern over the capitals infection rate - higher than any other region of England.
The capital, along with the South East and East of England, have a value of 0.9 to 1.1, meaning it is probably just at 1.
Following them are the South West and Midlands, with 0.8 to 1 R rate.
The North West and North East and Yorkshire - where swathes of people are living under the tough Tier 3 restrictions - had the next lowest range at 0.7 and 0.9.
It suggests the bans on seeing friends and family, along with the closure of hospitality, is working to push the R rate down.
What is the R rate across the UK?
England: 0.8-1.0
East of England: 0.9-1.1
London: 0.9-1.1
Midlands: 0.8-1.0
North East and Yorkshire: 0.7-0.9
North West: 0.7-0.9
South East: 0.9-1.1
South West: 0.8-1.0
Sage also estimates the growth rate, which reflects how quickly the number of infections are changing.
When the growth rate is less than zero, it means the epidemic is shrinking. But higher than that, and the outbreak is growing.
The current growth rate for England is -2 per cent to 0 per cent, meaning the number of new cases are still shrinking, but only just.
Last week it was estimated that the growth rate was -3 per cent to -1 per cent.
It's the third week in a row Sage have estimated the growth rate to be at least zero or below.
Once more, London, the East of England and the South East are showing signs of a stall.
The growth rate is highest in the East, at -1 to +2 per cent, followed by London and the South East at -1 to +1 per cent.
The North West, North East and Yorkshire are both reporting a shrinking in outbreaks of -4 to -2 per cent every day, while the South West is at -4 to 0 per cent.
The Midlands' growth rate is also below zero, at -3 to -1 per cent.
What does the R rate mean?
R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread - and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It's also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.
Every week, Sage cautions its estimates are based on an average - and a data lag means they may be slightly behind the nation's current picture.
It comes as data shows parts of the South are struggling with worsening coronavirus outbreaks.
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Ministers are worried about rising infections in London, Essex and Kent specifically.
It means they could be moved into Tier 3 at the first review of restrictions on December 16, just a few days before Christmas. Kent is already in Tier 3.
As it stands 55 million are in Tiers 2 and 3 with only the Isle of Wight, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly facing the lightest Tier 1 coronavirus restrictions.
Large swathes of the Midlands, North East and North West are in the most restrictive Tier 3, which accounts for 41.5 per cent of the population, or 23.3 million people.
However, they may finally be released from the toughest rules soon, as data shows their case rates have improved week-on-week.
