Is my area moving into Tier 3? The Covid hotspots on the brink as infections rise in 62 local authorities

FIVE locations have been identified as being on the brink of Tier 3, just days before the revision of the tier system.

Moving from Tier 2 to Tier 3 in the lead up to Christmas would see the closure of pubs and restaurants and a ban on social mixing.

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The Covid Symptom Study app reveals the areas struggling to overcome Covid-19 while in Tier 2 are: London; Essex, Thurrock and Southend-on-Sea; Somerset and Bath and North East Somerset; Gloucestershire; Wiltshire and Swindon.

This is based on how many cases there are per 100,000 people, and how many cases are in the over 60s - two key pieces of criteria the Government consider when deciding on tier levels.

The app researchers, at King’s College London, said daily new cases are decreasing in all regions apart from London.

The capital is the only area where cases are not going down, with an R value of 1.0. The R value must stay below 1 in order for the outbreak to shrink, otherwise it gets bigger.

However, the data shows there are big local differences between boroughs, with six times more cases in Enfield than in Kingston upon Thames.

For this reason, the lead researcher Professor Tim Spector warned against plunging the 9million residents of London under a Tier 3 level.

He also said cases are not at a “worrying level” in the over 60s - they are just above the Tier 2 average. 

London is teetering on the brink of Tier 3 after a number of data sets in the past few days have revealed it’s concerning infection rates.

But moving it up into the “high alert level” on December 16, the first review of the tier system, could cost 150,000 jobs, experts have warned.

London mayor Sadiq Khan said London is at a "serious tipping point" in the coronavirus outbreak, and the capital should "prepare for additional restrictions".

Ministers are also particularly worried about Essex, which was in Tier 3 before the second national lockdown, but has gone down to Tier 2.

At last night's Downing Street Briefing, the Health Secretary Matt Hancock admitted he was particularly concerned about the number of case in London and Essex, as well as Kent, which is already in Tier 3.

However, Mr Hancock would not pre-empt the decision made on the tier levels in six days time.

The Covid Symptom study app also reveals the five areas that may be moved down from Tier 3 into Tier 2 after an impressive turnaround.

These areas are: Greater Manchester; Nottingham and Nottinghamshire; Bristol, South Gloucestershire, North Somerset; Tees Valley; Derby and Derbyshire.

Professor Chris Whitty, England's Chief Medical Officer, praised the "remarkable" work that has been done in the Midlands and North for suppressing the virus at the press briefing last night. 

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In more positive news, the app shows there are currently 19,190 daily new symptomatic cases of Covid-19 in the UK.

It’s down on the 20,500 reported a week ago, and 45,000 or so in mid-October before the lockdown.

The figures are based on around one million weekly reporters on the app, created by health tech company Zoe, and 10,442 swab tests done between 22 November to 6 December.

‘Cases going up in 62 areas’ - but the South fares worse

It comes as data from Public Health England revealed the 62 areas of England where cases are on the rise, based on swabs in the week to December 6.

PHE's Covid-19 and flu surveillance report, published every Thursday, reports cases per 100,000 in each area. But the data is only preliminary and may change slightly over time.

Almost every local authority that saw cases increase in the week to December 6 were in the South of England, data from Public Health England shows.

Bracknell Forest, Central Bedfordshire and Southend-on-Sea saw infections rise the most - each by more than 50 per cent.

Cases went up by 70 per cent in Bracknell Forest, Berkshire, from 97 cases per 100,000 to 166.

For comparison, it's infection rate is still several times lower than Medway, at the top with 576 new cases per 100,000.

Sixteen places in England saw new case rates jump up by more than a third, compared to only one the week prior (to November 29).

These were Bracknell Forest, Milton Keynes, Greenwich, Bath and North East Somerset, Essex, Havering, Thurrock, East Sussex, Wokingham, Harrow, Waltham Forest, Haringey, Enfield, Southend-on-Sea, Hackney and City of London and Central Bedfordshire.

The speed at which infections are increasing is one of the key criteria ministers use to decide which areas need tougher restrictions.

It means the PHE data, alongside that from KCL, suggests London, Essex are potentially at risk of bumping up to the "high alert level".

In Essex, cases increased by 34 per cent in one week, according to PHE.

Cases also went up by 36 per cent in Thurrock, which has the 13th highest rate in the whole of England, and by 50 per cent in Southend-on-Sea, at 28th place.

Several places have case rates per 100,000 that are higher than Tier 3 areas, suggesting they could be at risk of moving up a tier.

Luton has the 10th highest infection rate in England, at almost 300 cases per 100,000, but is only under Tier 2 rules.

Peterborough, Milton Keynes, Wokingham and Swindon all have infection rates higher than areas in Tier 3, but cases are not growing in the latter two.

The North-South split

Of the 62 local authorities with a rise in cases in the week to December 6, 52 were in the South or West of England.

The majority of the South and South West are in currently in Tier 2, other than Kent, Bristol and parts of Somerset.

But the data suggests that could soon change.

Meanwhile, the majority of those under the toughest restrictions in the North have shown an impressive turnaround.

Practically the whole of the North of England has continued on a downward slope of cases.

It suggests the Tier 3 restrictions in the North West, Yorkshire, North East and Midlands have worked in suppressing the virus.

Although the millions living there will be subject to at least another week of Tier 3 restrictions, this could be reversed on December 16. 

London heading for Tier 3

A number of datasets show London is heading for Tier 3.

London has the worst infection rate of all nine regions in the UK - almost 200 cases per 100,0000 people.

Case rates are up in 31 of the 32 London boroughs, the exception being Brent, according to PHE.

Therefore it means almost half of the places seeing rises in cases across the country are in London.

The biggest increases in cases (more than a third) have been seen in Hackney and City of London, Enfield, Haringey, Waltham Forest, Harrow, Havering and Greenwich, according to PHE data. 

The boroughs Havering, Barking and Dagenham and Waltham Forest have the most cases in London, and are also in the top 10 Covid hotspots of England.

London MPs were in urgent talks with health ministers yesterday to discuss the next best step for the capital.

Professor Spector said it would be a “big mistake” to put London in Tier 3.

Speaking at a Royal Society of Medicine briefing on December 10, he said: "Most cases are in the north of London at the moment. But it would be a big mistake if London goes into Tier 3.

"I think everybody should be coming down a tier and staying somewhere between Tier 1 and 2 until April, before we see the vaccine taking effect.

"This on-off business is a total disaster and we should absolutely avoid it."

He tweeted this morning that the Covid app shows Covid-19 rates in the over 60s in London are "not yet worrying".

The Government considers cases in the over 60s along with how many people are in hospital for deciding tiers - not just case numbers. 

Despite the app showing London was failing in Tier 2, Prof Spector said: "In London the cases are possibly starting to rise again but I would be very cautious about plunging all 9 million people into further restrictions, with such big differences across the capital."

Mr Hancock said at the briefing last night that it is “not inevitable” that London will be placed under tighter coronavirus restrictions.

But health experts have disagreed with Mr Hancock’s statement, saying that the rising number of infections in London suggests that tighter restrictions may be needed.

Professor Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia, told the BBC it “does sadly look like we’re heading that way”.

“It is difficult to tell because if the epidemic is restricted to teenagers then the impact on hospitals in the area won’t be that great, but we know from the past that once it is prevalent in one age group it tends to leak into other age groups and ultimately into the age groups that are most vulnerable with the increase,” he said.

“So I’m not absolutely sure at the moment but it does sadly look like we’re heading that way for London.”

The chairman of the London Assembly Health Committee, Dr Onkar Sahota, added that “the figures look like we will be heading for Tier 3”.

Asked on Times Radio if relaxing measures at Christmas would cause London to be placed under tougher restrictions, Dr Sahota said: “I think it’s certainly given the people a false sense of confidence that things will be alright.

“People are going to Regent Street, packing it up… we are traveling on the Tubes much more than we should be doing… Christmas will not be alright unless we follow the good public health measures.”