For more than a century, California’s population has grown with astonishing speed: On average, the state added more than 300,000 people per year. But now the state’s growth has stalled.
Population growth, by state, since 1900
40 million
California
30
Texas
Florida
20
New York
10
All other
states
0
1900
1940
1980
2020
Source: U.S. Census
Population growth, by state, since 1900
40 million
California
30
Texas
Florida
20
New York
10
All other
states
0
1900
1940
1980
2020
Source: U.S. Census
Population growth, by state, since 1900
40 million
California
30
Texas
Florida
20
New York
10
All other
states
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Source: U.S. Census
The slowdown began before the pandemic. California gained about 230,000 people between July 1, 2016, and July 1, 2017, but between July 1, 2019, and July 1, 2020, the state’s population growth hit the brakes, adding only 21,000 new residents.
The slowdown has three primary causes: an exodus to other states, a larger-than-normal baby bust and an immigration halt. Each of these trends reveals deep problems within the state.
Challenge: People are leaving California for other states
California was once a magnet for migration: Americans would leave their home state and move there in search of a better life. But, since 1990, California has been losing people to other states.
Population gain or loss to other states
since 1990
All other
states
+250K
Added
people
0
Lost
people
-250K
California
1990
2000
2010
2019
Source: U.S. Census
Population gain or loss to other states since 1990
+250K
All other
states
Added
people
0
Lost
people
-250K
California
1990
2000
2010
2019
Source: U.S. Census
Population gain or loss to other states since 1990
+250K
All other states
Added
people
0
Lost
people
-250K
California
1990
2000
2010
2019
Source: U.S. Census
Why? One reason is that living in California is expensive.
Taxes are high — according to the Tax Foundation, California has the ninth highest combined state and local sales taxes in the country. Gas costs more in California than anywhere else in the country. And, most importantly, housing is increasingly unaffordable for many Californians. According to Zillow, the typical home in California now costs $635,000 — more than double the national price.
Typical home value, Zillow Index
$600K
California
400K
U.S.
200K
0
1996
2004
2012
2020
Source: Zillow
Typical home value, Zillow Index
$600K
California
400K
U.S.
200K
0
1996
2004
2012
2020
Note: The Zillow Index is smoothed, seasonally adjusted and
reflects the typical value for homes in the 35th to 65th
percentile range.
Source: Zillow
Typical home value, Zillow Index
$600,000
California
400,000
U.S.
200,000
0
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Note: The Zillow Index is smoothed, seasonally adjusted and reflects the typical value for homes in the 35th
to 65th percentile range.
Source: Zillow
The result, data shows, is that Californians with lower incomes and lower levels of educational attainment are most inclined to leave the state.
Who is coming? Who is leaving?
Income
Households
Education
People age 25+
Bachelor’s
degree
or more
+50K
Income over
$100K
0
-50K
Less than
$100K
Non-college
grad
−100K
-150K
2006
2019
2006
2019
Sources: Beacon Economics, author’s calculations
Who is coming? Who is leaving?
Income
Households
Education
People age 25+
Bachelor’s
degree
or more
+50K
Income over
$100K
Moved to
California
0
Moved
out
-50K
Less than
$100K
Non-college
grad
−100K
-150K
2006
2019
2006
2019
Sources: Beacon Economics, author’s calculations
Who is coming? Who is leaving?
Income
Households
Education
People age 25+
+50K
+50K
Income over
$100K
Bachelor’s degree
or more
Moved to
California
0
0
Moved
out
-50K
-50K
Less than
$100K
Non-college
grad
−100K
−100K
-150K
-150K
2006
2019
2006
2019
Sources: Beacon Economics, author’s calculations
Young people feel the squeeze in particular. In 2019, a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California asked Californians if they had seriously considered moving away because of housing costs. Many said yes:
Housing costs as a reason for leaving the
state depend on age
NO
YES
In
state
Outside
state
AGE
44%
40%
18-34
52%
36%
35-54
30%
61%
55+
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
Housing costs as a reason for leaving the state depend
on age
NO
YES
In
state
Outside
state
AGE
44%
40%
18-34
52%
36%
35-54
30%
61%
55+
Note: Exact question wording is “Does the cost of housing make
you and your family seriously consider moving away from the
part of California you live now?”
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
Housing costs as a reason for leaving the state depend on age
NO
YES
AGE
In-state
Outside state
18-34
40%
44%
35-54
36%
52%
30%
61%
55+
Note: Exact question wording is “Does the cost of housing make you and your family seriously consider
moving away from the part of California you live now?”
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
And, as a result, many Californians have left for cheaper places to live.
In 2019, California lost 170,000 people to other states. Texas was the top destination, netting 45,000new people from California. Arizona was next, adding a total of 30,000. Nevada, Oregon and Washington state rounded out the top five.
Top 10 states Californians moved to in 2019
WA
ID
OR
NV
UT
CO
TN
Calif.
AZ
TX
FL
Note: Line widths are proportional to net
migration from California.
Sources: Census Bureau, state to state
net migration flows, 2019.
Top 10 states Californians moved to in 2019
WA
OR
ID
NV
UT
CO
TN
Calif.
AZ
TX
FL
Note: Line widths are proportional to net migration from
California.
Sources: Census Bureau, state to state net migration
flows, 2019.
Top 10 states Californians moved to in 2019
Wash.
Idaho
Ore.
Nev.
Utah
Colo.
Tenn.
California
Ariz.
Tex.
+45,000
Fla.
Note: Line widths are proportional to net migration from California.
Sources: Census Bureau, state to state net migration flows, 2019.
In the top two destinations — Texas and Arizona — the median home values are less than half of what they are in California.
Challenge: Californians are making fewer new Californians
California is — like the rest of the nation — in the middle of a baby bust. California’s is just a bit more dramatic.
Births per 1,000 people
21
18
Utah
15
California
12
U.S. average
New
Hampshire
9
2001
2010
2019
Source: U.S. Census
Births per 1,000 people
21
18
Utah
15
California
12
U.S. avg.
New
Hampshire
9
2001
2005
2010
2015
2019
Source: U.S. Census
Births per 1,000 people
21
18
Utah
15
California
12
U.S. average
9
New
Hampshire
2001
2005
2010
2015
2019
Source: U.S. Census
According to demographer Lyman Stone, cost and culture are both responsible for the bust.
“Births are declining in California and around the country because there’s been essentially no recovery in the broad economic circumstances for younger families,” Stone said. Millennials were hit hard by the Great Recession, and they’ve had trouble buying homes and forming families ever since.
The numbers also reflect a cultural shift. Stone noted, “People want to have children later. They want to get married later. They see marriage as a capstone rather than part of a path to stability and success. The result of pushing things later is that some births, and some marriages, don’t happen at all.”
Average age of new mothers
D.C.
30
Calif.
28
U.S.
average
26
Miss.
24
22
2005
2010
2015
2019
Source: CDC/WONDER
Average age of new mothers
D.C.
30
California
28
U.S. average
26
Mississippi
24
22
2005
2010
2015
2019
Source: CDC/WONDER
Average age of new mothers
D.C.
30
California
28
U.S. average
26
Mississippi
24
22
2005
2010
2015
2019
Source: CDC/WONDER
In 2003, the average age for new mothers nationally was 25.2 years and 25.8 in the Golden State.
In 2019, the national average was 27 but the California average rose to 28.3 years.
Challenge: Fewer immigrants are coming to California.
California used to be America’s front door, often drawing in more than 200,000 immigrants from other countries each year. Lately, it has drawn less than half that number:
Population gain from immigration each year
+300K
+200K
+100K
Florida
California
Texas
All other
states
0
1990
2000
2010
2019
Source: U.S. Census
Population gain from immigration each year
+300K
+200K
+100K
Florida
California
Texas
All other
states
0
1990
2000
2010
2019
Source: U.S. Census
Population gain from immigration each year
+300K
+200K
Florida
+100K
California
Texas
All other
states
0
1990
2000
2010
2019
Source: U.S. Census
According to Pew Senior Researcher Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, the Great Recession made the United States less attractive to would-be Mexican immigrants. At that time, “There were a lot less jobs for immigrant workers, particularly Mexican immigrant workers in the U.S. And we saw a massive flow of Mexican returnees during those years. Even though the economy picked up after that ... we have not seen Mexican flows pick up in the same way, as fast as they were in the 1990s.”
Politicians also slammed on the brakes. The Obama administration ramped up enforcement at the country’s southern border, causing a rise in deportations in the early years of his presidency. And the Trump administration did more: It cut legal immigration by half, reduced the number of green cards issued, tightened the rules for high-skill H1-B visas and separated migrant children from their families at the border.
California’s unauthorized Mexican
immigrant population is down
2 million
1.5
1.0
The decline
started
during the
2008
recession
0.5
0
1995
2005
2015
Source: Pew Research
California’s unauthorized Mexican immigrant
population is down
2 million
1.5
1.0
The decline started
during the 2008
recession
0.5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Pew Research
California’s unauthorized Mexican immigrant population is down
2 million
1.5
The decline started
during the 2008
recession
1.0
0.5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Pew Research
California has passed laws that make the state more welcoming to immigrants. But it can only do so much: Federal policies, combined with a recession and improving economic conditions abroad, have made the state less attractive to potential newcomers.
Golden State prospects
Nobody knows whether California’s slowdown is just a speed bump or the start of a longer decline. California has been on the brink of catastrophe before, and it has always managed to recover.
But Californians aren’t optimistic. According to the Public Policy Institute of California, 58 percent of Californians believe it’s harder to achieve the American Dream in their state than elsewhere, and 63 percent say that when California’s children grow up, they’ll be worse off financially than their parents.
California has time to right the ship — the state can build more housing, help prospective parents afford the kids they want, and find ways to further welcome immigrants.
Otherwise, states like Texas, Florida and Arizona will become the new promised lands of opportunity.
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